Turbulent Times report: Business leaders taking radical steps in an uncertain world

Turbulent Times report: Business leaders taking radical steps in an uncertain world

December 2025

Simon Buckby, Managing Director of Sandpiper Government & Public Affairs

As we near the end of an unpredictable year for business, trade, and politics everywhere, the results of Sandpiper’s latest landmark Turbulent Times survey reveal that business leaders do not expect a return to stability any time soon, that they are feeling pain from it, and that they are taking radical steps to mitigate risks and costs in an uncertain world.

Based on a survey of 3,089 business leaders across 17 sectors in 28 markets, executives are pessimistic about the prospects for a resolution between the US and China in the short- and medium-term, and therefore do not expect business confidence to return in 2026.

As many as 80% rank the level of risk associated with the current geopolitical climate as 6 or higher out of 10. Almost two-thirds, 62%, expect a fall in their firm’s overall revenue next year as a direct result of these upheavals.

Although tariffs and trade conflicts have been one of the headline stories of 2025, it is not only tariffs that are causing anxiety. About two-thirds of our survey respondents believe that multiple factors pose bigger threats to them now than six months ago, including supply chain disruptions (68%), higher inflation (67%), a widespread economic contraction (66%), diplomatic controversies (65%), consumer activism (64%), and social media fragmentation (62%).

In addition, the seemingly relentless rise of Artificial Intelligence is causing concern. 65% say they believe AI poses a greater threat to their business than it did six months ago. This figure is up by 6 points from when we asked a similar sample the same question back in May this year.

These worries are common worldwide. That said, the proportion of respondents in China expressing concern about these geopolitical issues is noticeably lower than the aggregate. Meanwhile, the percentages of those based in the United States who are concerned by these risks are significantly higher than the totals.

This difference in attitudes between business executives based in China and their peers in the United States is a theme throughout our results. For instance, while leaders nearly everywhere believe that their market will be the worst hit, as many as 62% of Americans believe they will be hit worse, while only 46% of Chinese business leaders think they will be.

Asked in the week before and the week of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea at the end of October, more than half, 55%, think it will take at least six months for the two sides to reach any kind of sustainable trade deal. A further 5% believe they will never reach such an agreement.

This is far more pessimistic than when we asked similar questions back in April. Then, soon after Mr Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, maybe optimistically, 67% of leaders forecast that the trade and tariff conflict would be resolved within six months, that is, by now.

In consequence, expectations in all markets are now very low. Asked to rank the top five countries best placed to capture business confidence over the next twelve months, the most likely top performers are the US (with just 16%) and China (15%), with no other market scoring more than 6%.

In summary, the majority of business leaders around the world are deeply concerned that the pain they have experienced will continue for the foreseeable future and that nowhere will be able to buck the trend. Therefore, many are taking steps to protect themselves from further damage, including passing on costs to consumers (91%), reducing their investment exposure in the US (37%) and in China (35%), and imposing hiring freezes (19%).

Despite all this, there is a fascinating punchline to this research.

President Trump often likes to say who he thinks holds the strongest cards in any negotiation, so we asked our respondents who they think has the better hand between the US and China.

The US leader may be disappointed to learn that, in general, executives believe the two nations are pretty evenly matched: 39% say China has the best cards, while 46% say the US does.

However, the fact that 81% of US-based respondents think their government has the strongest hand, while 92% of those in China think their government has the best cards, may indicate why neither side seems in a rush to compromise. Our Turbulent Times report is full of fascinating insights that expose a depth and breadth of nervousness about the economic prospects for the coming year. You can get the full report here:

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