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February 2026
Mohammed Ali Amakhmakh, Account Executive, Sandpiper
The geopolitical upheaval experienced last year shows no sign of slowing in 2026, with the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States sending shockwaves around the world.
Now that the dust has started to settle on the Venezuela situation, impacts on global oil supplies and geopolitics are beginning to become clear, particularly for countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and countries treated by the US as rival great powers, namely Russia and China.
Oil & Caution in the GCC
Immediately after Maduro was captured, President Trump claimed US oil companies had already expressed interest in the investment opportunities a change in regime offered. He further claimed the US had sold 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil in the first four days the US took control.
Yet many experts have predicted over the past few weeks that the seizure of these reserves will prove to have little to no effect on short-term oil prices because although Venezuela has over 303 billion barrels in the ground, its supply is relatively small in global terms. That is not to say that the events are innocuous. While changes in the control of Venezuelan oil assets do not directly remove or immediately add large amounts to the market, they will reshape the policy choices and the strategic positioning of certain companies and countries, primarily in the Middle East.
Many oil-exporting nations will no doubt wait and see in an effort to avoid price instability and any risk of oversupplying the market. It has been reported that OPEC+, an organisation where Venezuela and several GCC countries are members, has recently announced that it will put its oil production operations on a temporary hiatus until the end of March due to current market instability.
Opportunity for a Stronger GCC – China Relationship
As the US asserts greater control over Venezuela’s crude resources, China’s traditional access to Venezuelan oil faces uncertainty and potential disruption. Critical public and private segments of the Chinese oil sector, like PetroChina Guangdong (Jieyang) and Shandong Independent Refineries, have been reliant on Venezuelan imports. Thus, the reorientation of Venezuelan oil flows, the politically complex access to Venezuelan crude resources, and any supply disturbance might encourage Beijing to look more consistently to the Gulf for long-term, stable contracts.
That could open space for Gulf oil exporters to deepen their engagement with China, although the extent of this shift will ultimately be shaped by how market conditions evolve.
This new status quo will likely reinforce the mutual interests of both parties: GCC oil companies may look to collaborate with Chinese refiners to secure better pricing leverage with a major importer, while China will surely aim to solidify its energy diversification strategy outside of the Western Hemisphere.
The potential glut of Venezuelan oil in the market through the US also poses a challenge to Gulf Cooperation Council oil companies, and Washington’s influence puts pressure on China to reinforce energy security through deeper engagement with reliable producers like those in the Gulf. This creates an opening for stronger China-GCC collaboration on long-term contracts and supply strategies, as we have seen in other sectors.
Once again, the law of unintended consequences could prevail. And the capture of Venezuelan barrels may prove less consequential than the quiet consolidation of China-Gulf energy ties it helps set in motion.
China’s shift towards the Gulf fits a larger trend already visible across trade, investment, real estate, aviation, defence, technology and healthcare – where the GCC is increasingly positioned as a more stable and strategically aligned partner beyond the Western Hemisphere.
As these ties deepen, the risk landscape will evolve in parallel. Commercial decisions will carry geopolitical signals; partnerships will attract greater scrutiny; and corporate actions will be interpreted differently across Beijing, Gulf capitals, Washington, and European markets. In this environment, reputation, narrative control and stakeholder alignment become more important.
Navigating this ecosystem requires the ability to anticipate how geopolitical shifts translate into regulatory pressure, public perception, and political expectation across multiple systems at once. This is an area where Sandpiper has extensive expertise. With deep experience advising clients in the energy, government, financial and legal sectors across the China-GCC corridor, our teams understand how narratives form, travel and harden across markets with very different media, policy and market dynamics. We help clients identify emerging fault lines early, and position themselves before scrutiny escalates.
As the effects continue to ripple across sectors, the ability to anticipate narratives and shape them early will be a decisive advantage for organisations seeking to build trust and operate confidently within the intersection of a growing China-GCC relationship.
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