Turbulent Times in Thailand: Government and Policy Affairs Review

Turbulent Times in Thailand: Government and Policy Affairs Review

September 2025

By Simon Buckby. Based in Bangkok, Simon is the Managing Director of Sandpiper Government and Public Affairs. He has decades of experience in advising governments and business leaders on strategy, policy and communications, and has worked across Europe, the Middle East, China and Southeast Asia.

Entering 2025, sentiment about Thailand was cautiously optimistic. There were promising signs of a rebound in tourism, a pick-up in the economy, and after years in exile the return of Thaksin Shinawatra appeared to have stabilised politics.

Yet it’s been a rough 2025 since then, and it now promises a potentially seismic end to the year. We look at the developments, the complexities faced by business leaders, corporate affairs practitioners, and policy advisers, and how to navigate a safe path through them.

Kidnapping, Trafficking and an Earthquake

In early January, well-known Chinese actor Wang Xing was kidnapped in Thailand and trafficked to a scam centre in Myanmar. He was eventually released, but the episode shone a bright light on the illegal gangs operating on Thailand’s borders and triggered a collapse in visitors from China. In the first five months, the number of visitors from China dropped by almost 33%.

In March, an earthquake in Myanmar measuring 7.7 on the Richter Scale crashed all the way into the heart of Bangkok, where 103 people died, most from the collapse of a skyscraper under construction. This revealed structural design flaws and the use of subpar materials, putting the spotlight on building industry standards, sending negative images around the world, and ended with 23 individuals and firms indicted.

Tariffs, a Phone Leak and Border War

In April, Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 36% on Thailand. After negotiations, they were reduced to 19% in August, in line with most countries in Southeast Asia. Although more competitive than neighbours Malaysia and Vietnam, which have additional tariffs on goods claimed to originate from China, it’ still a big hit for an economy that exports some 20% of all its goods to the United States.

In June, amid escalating border tensions, former Cambodian leader Hun Sen launched an attack on his old friends the Shinawatras by leaking a recording of his phone call with Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter, in which she called him “uncle” and disparaged a Thai military commander. Leader of the second-largest party, Anutin Charnvirakul, pulled out of the governing coalition, and the prime minister was suspended.

By July, Thailand-Cambodia tensions erupted in military clashes over a disputed border and claims to the Preah Vihear Temple, quickly escalating into a full-blown five-day war, in which 50 people were killed and 300,000 Thais and Cambodians were forced to flee their homes.

Tourism Down and Growth Lagging

In light of all this, it was no surprise when the Ministry of Tourism revealed that visitor numbers in the first eight months of 2025 are down 7% compared to the same period last year. This is not good news for a sector that contributes roughly 12% of GDP.

With the World Bank forecasting economic growth of just 1.8% in 2025, and official household debt standing at a colossal 88% of GDP, the country is crying out for a firm hand on the tiller.

The End for the Shinawatra Dynasty?

On 29 August, Paetongtarn was barred from office on ethical grounds by a court ruling. And on 9 September another court ruled that her father Thaksin, the 76-year-old billionaire whose family have dominated Thai politics this century, must serve one year in jail for failing to complete a previous sentence for corruption. This is beginning to look like the potential end for his dynasty.

Meanwhile, staunch royalist Anutin Charnvirakul formed a new government with the support of the anti-establishment People’s Party, a movement previously blocked by the courts despite winning the largest number of seats in the most recent general election. The catch is that there must be an election within four months.

It’s hard to see the Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party bouncing back for that, which is therefore likely to usher in a new era in Thai politics. Whether one of stability, or a different kind of turbulence, should become clearer by the end of the year.

The Way Forward – from Confusion to Clarity

Following these upheavals, Thailand needs to steady its course, and needs help with strategy, policies and communications. Many within public affairs here in Thailand are keen to support and do what we can for this country we love, to rebuild its international reputation, reaffirm its authority, and attract investment and tourists.

Those with business interests here need to monitor developments more closely than ever, securing advice from knowledgeable professionals on the ground. They need to get close to those politicians who could be the next generation of leaders, and lobby for reforms that would create a healthy economy. We all have a part to play in the future success of politics, the economy and businesses in Thailand.

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